On December 5, after the opening of 9:30, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar straight up, also rose through the “7″ yuan mark. The onshore yuan traded at 6.9902 against the US dollar as of 9:33 am, up 478 basis points from the previous close to a high of 6.9816.
On September 15 and 16 this year, the exchange rate of offshore RMB and onshore RMB against the US dollar fell below the “7″ yuan mark successively, and then went down all the way to 7.3748 yuan and 7.3280 yuan respectively.
After the rapid depreciation of the early exchange rate, the recent RMB exchange rate launched a sharp rebound.
From the high and low points, the offshore RMB/US dollar exchange rate on the 5th day of 6.9813 yuan price compared to the previous low of 7.3748 yuan rebound more than 5%; The onshore yuan, at 7.01 to the dollar, has also rebounded more than 4% from its previous low.
According to the data of November, after consecutive months of depreciation, the RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly in November, with the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate rising by 2.15% and 3.96% respectively against the US dollar, the largest monthly increase in the first 11 months of this year.
Meanwhile, data showed that the 5 morning, the dollar index continued to fall. The dollar index traded at 104.06 as of 9:13. The dollar index has lost 5.03 per cent of its value in November.
An official of the People’s Bank of China once pointed out that when the RMB exchange rate breaks “7″, it is not an age, and the past cannot be returned, nor is it a dyke. Once the RMB exchange rate is breached, the flood will flow for thousands of miles. It is more like the water level of a reservoir. It is higher in wet season and lower in dry season. There are ups and downs, which is normal.
Regarding this round of rapid appreciation of RMB exchange rate, CICC research report pointed out that after November 10, influenced by the lower than expected US CPI data, the Federal Reserve turned to the expected strengthening, and the RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly against the background of the significant weakening of the US dollar. In addition, the main reason for the stronger RMB exchange rate is the positive impact on economic expectations brought about by the adjustment of epidemic prevention policy, real estate policy and monetary policy in November.
“The optimization of epidemic prevention and control will bring great support to the recovery of consumption next year, and the relevant positive effects will become more obvious as time goes on.” Cicc research report.
As for the recent trend of RMB exchange rate, the chief economist of Citic Securities said that at present, the phased peak of the US dollar index may have passed, and its passive depreciation pressure on the RMB is becoming weaker. Even if the US dollar index rebounds beyond expectations again, the spot exchange rate of RMB against US dollar may not break the previous low again due to the improvement of domestic economic expectations, the slowdown of capital outflow pressure in the stock and bond markets, the overhang of foreign exchange settlement demand or the year-end release and other factors.
Industrial research report pointed out that funds return to the stock market, December Yuan is expected to continue the appreciation since November. The purchasing exchange rate in October exceeded the settlement exchange rate, but with the demand of rigid exchange settlement before the Spring Festival, the RMB will return to the strong at the beginning of the year.
Cicc research report said that further economic support measures may be gradually introduced after the important meeting, driven by the gradual improvement of economic expectations, combined with seasonal foreign exchange settlement factors, the RMB exchange rate trend may start to outperform a basket of currencies.
Post time: Dec-05-2022