The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an update to its World Economic Outlook report on the 16th, expecting China’s economy to grow by 5% in 2024. Pierre Olivier Gulancha, Chief Economist of the IMF, stated that emerging Asian economies such as China remain the main engines of the global economy.
The update indicates that at the beginning of this year, global economic activity and world trade have consolidated. The export growth in the Asian region, especially its strong performance in the technology sector, has provided impetus for trade growth. According to the latest IMF forecast, global economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2% in 2024, while global trade volume is expected to increase by 3.1% and 3.4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, both of which are 0.1 percentage points higher than the April forecast.
Quresha stated that emerging economies in Asia, represented by China, remain the main engines of global economic growth.
IMF First Vice President Gita Gopinath announced in Beijing in May this year that the IMF had raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the April forecast.
The updated content points out that the risk of inflation rising globally has increased, especially considering the intensification of trade frictions and increased policy uncertainty, which may lead to interest rates remaining high for a longer period of time.
Quresha pointed out that if developed economies struggle to curb inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may need to maintain borrowing costs at higher levels for a longer period of time. This will not only threaten global economic growth and exacerbate upward pressure on the US dollar, but also have negative spillover effects on emerging and developing economies.
In addition, Qulansha said that the proportion of US debt in gross domestic product (GDP) continues to rise, which undoubtedly poses a potential risk to itself and the global economy.
Post time: Jul-17-2024